The Apollo Project
Liberal Ideas for the 21st Century
Monday, February 27, 2006
Leadership prediction competition
by Stephen Tall

Here at The Apollo Project the arguments have raged over the last few weeks (or at least as close as we Lib Dems come to raging) as to which of the three Lib Dem leadership hopefuls – Ming Campbell, Chris Huhne or Simon Hughes – will emerge victorious.

In truth, none of us really has any clue what will be the decision of the 73,000 party members when it is announced this Thursday. Which is what makes elections exciting.

But the time has now come for us to set aside our own partisan views, and to put our pundit credibility on the line. Below are the seven key questions which will determine who is the victor: using your skill, judgement and sheer blind luck, post your predictions in the comments box before 12 noon this Thursday.

The prize, as is customary in all such cheap-arsed interweb competitions, is the admiration of your peers.

1. Total number of votes cast (%):

2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell (%):

3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne (%):

4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes (%):

If no candidate scores 50%+ on the first round, the candidate with least 1st preferences will be excluded, and their 2nd preferences re-distributed accordingly.

What do you think will be the result in this final round? (Tip: put 0% next to whichever candidate you think will lose in the first round.)

5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell (%):

6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne (%):

7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes (%):

By 3pm this Thursday, 2nd March, the Liberal Democrats will have a new leader. The Apollo Project wishes the best of luck to whoever emerges the winner; and thanks the two losing candidates for ensuring a hard-fought contest.
posted by Apollo Project @ 11:04 am  
30 Comments:
  • At 27 February, 2006 11:09, Blogger Peter Pigeon said…

    1. 72%
    2. 44%
    3. 30%
    4. 26%
    5. 57%
    6. 43%
    7. 0%

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 11:12, Blogger The Cat said…

    Here goes:

    1. Total number of votes cast (%): 66%

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 36%

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 37%

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 27%

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 52%

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 48%

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 0%

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 11:27, Blogger Joe Otten said…

    1. 69%
    2. 38%
    3. 35%
    4. 27%
    5. 54%
    6. 46%
    7. 0

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 11:32, Blogger Will said…

    1. 60%
    2. 38%
    3. 33%
    4. 29%
    5. 54%
    6. 46%
    7. 0%
    (with the caveat that if Hughes comes second, Campbell will win by more)

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 11:50, Blogger Icarus said…

    1. 70%
    2. 45%
    3. 35%
    4. 2o%
    5. 60%
    6. 30%
    7. 0%

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 11:52, Blogger Icarus said…

    OT - logging into this site is ridiculously complicated - I have had to set up a Blog site which I dont want.

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 12:19, Blogger Joe Otten said…

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 12:59, Blogger Apollo Project said…

    It should now be possible to post without being logged in.

    Bbut please - no anonymous comments.

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 13:59, Blogger Stephen Tall said…

    1. Total number of votes cast (%): 71%

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 38%

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 33%

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 29%

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 54%

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 46%

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 0%

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 14:09, Anonymous phil said…

    1. 74%
    2. 39%
    3. 39%
    4. 22%
    5. 52%
    6. 48%
    7. 0%

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 16:15, Blogger Bridgford said…

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 16:16, Blogger Bridgford said…

    1. 69%
    2. 36%
    3. 31%
    4. 33%
    5. 52%
    6. 48%
    7. 0%

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 16:25, Anonymous Simon Kovar said…

    First round

    Ming 35%
    Chris 26%
    Simon 39%

    Second Preferences

    Ming 49%
    Simon 51%

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 18:13, Anonymous You knows it said…

    1. Total number of votes cast (%): 66%

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 32%

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 30%

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 38%

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 49%

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 0%

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 51%

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 19:37, Blogger Edward said…

    1. Total number of votes cast (%): 74%

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 38%

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 39%

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 21%

    If no candidate scores 50%+ on the first round, the candidate with least 1st preferences will be excluded, and their 2nd preferences re-distributed accordingly.

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 48%

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 49%

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 0%

    Now I'm assuming we count null votes as part of the percentage at each stage.

     
  • At 27 February, 2006 22:46, Blogger Bridgford said…

    My answers for 6 and 7 should be reversed, obviously! (Teach me to cut and paste).

     
  • At 28 February, 2006 09:29, Blogger Nicholas said…

    1. Proprtion of votes cast: 63%
    2. Menȝies Campbell first prefs: 39%
    3. Chris Huhne first prefs: 36%
    4. Simon Hughes first prefs: 25%
    5. Menȝies Campbell second round: 55%
    6. Chris Huhne second round: 45%
    7. Simon Hughes second round: 0%

     
  • At 28 February, 2006 09:59, Anonymous Richard said…

    1. 76%
    2. 35%
    3. 33%
    4. 32%
    5. 49.5%
    6. 50.5%
    7. 0%

     
  • At 28 February, 2006 12:38, Blogger Iain said…

    1)68%
    2)38.5%
    340.00%
    4)21.5%
    5)48%
    6)52%
    7)0%

     
  • At 28 February, 2006 12:59, Blogger frvfvsdvdsv said…

    1. Proprtion of votes cast: 68%
    2. Menzies Campbell first prefs: 35%
    3. Chris Huhne first prefs: 37%
    4. Simon Hughes first prefs: 28%
    5. Menzies Campbell second round: 49%
    6. Chris Huhne second round: 51%
    7. Simon Hughes second round: 0%

    you heard it here first...

     
  • At 28 February, 2006 14:27, Blogger Paul Linford said…

    1. Total number of votes cast 78pc

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell 42pc

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne 31pc

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes 27pc

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell 58pc

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne 42pc

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes 0pc

     
  • At 28 February, 2006 14:57, Blogger Alex Wilcock said…

    1. Total number of votes cast (%): 62%

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 37%

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 34.5%

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 28.5%

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 53%

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 47%

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 0%

    ...But I have nothing but wildly unreliable instinct to go on for any of this ;-)

     
  • At 28 February, 2006 17:10, Blogger Ryan said…

    1. Total number of votes cast (%): 72%

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 38%

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 34%

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 28%

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 51%

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 49%

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 0%

     
  • At 28 February, 2006 18:38, Anonymous Alastair Mckinnon said…

    1. Turnout 64%
    2. MC 1st pref 42%
    3. CH 1st pref 31%
    4. SH 1st pref 27%
    5. MC Round 2 54%
    6. CH Round 2 46%
    7. SH Round 2 00%

     
  • At 01 March, 2006 13:08, Anonymous Iain Sharpe said…

    1. Total number of votes cast (%): 61

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 34

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 42

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 24

    Second round

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell (%): 43

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne (%): 57

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes (%): 0

     
  • At 01 March, 2006 13:14, Anonymous Stephen Glenn said…

    1. Total number of votes cast 68%:

    2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell 36%:

    3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne 31%:

    4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes 33%:

    5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell 49%:

    6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne 0%:

    7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes 51%:

     
  • At 01 March, 2006 22:50, Blogger Mark Valladares said…

    Percentage of votes cast: 62%

    Percentage of first preference votes for Menzies Campbell: 38%

    Percentage of first preference votes for Chris Huhne: 34%

    Percentage of first preference votes for Simon Hughes: 28%

    Second round votes cast for Menzies Campbell: 54%

    Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne: 46%

    Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes: 0%

     
  • At 02 March, 2006 12:28, Blogger Stephen Tall said…

    The competition is now closed. We'll report back on whose won asap.

    cheers, stephen

     
  • At 02 March, 2006 13:31, Anonymous Will said…

    The BBC reports a turnout of 72%.

     
  • At 02 March, 2006 17:44, Blogger Mark Valladares said…

    Looks like the first guess was the best one! Mr Pigeon, I am not worthy...

     
Post a Comment
<< Home
 
 
Previous Posts
Archives
Shoutbox

"What is Liberalism?: I should say it means the acknowledgment in practical life of the truth that men are best governed who govern themselves; that the general sense of mankind, if left alone, will make for righteousness; that artificial privileges and restraints upon freedom, so far as they are not required in the interests of the community, are hurtful; and that the laws, while, of course, they cannot equalise conditions, can at least avoid aggravating inequalities, and ought to have for their object the securing to every man the best chance he can have of a good and useful life." C-B.

Aims

The Apollo Project seeks to put together new ideas on policies and campaigning to help broaden the appeal and enhance the impact of the Liberal Democrats.

Email us
liberalism2010@yahoo.co.uk
Links
Powered by

Isnaini Dot Com

BLOGGER