The Apollo Project
Liberal Ideas for the 21st Century
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Bobby smells a ramp
by Peter

There is a lot of fuss being made about "leaked" poll figures at the moment that suggest that Ming will win the contest but that Huhne is in a relatively close second place. No one leaks anything interesting to me, so I don't know if this is true or not. But one poster on politicalbetting smells a ramp.

I don't know who Bobby is - but this is what he says.


103. Does this mean that YouGov need to publish the relevant details of the survey now that its main finding has entered the public domain?

Yes it does, only the figures that have suckered Mike are not the YouGov figures. If Mike believes otherwise he should recontact Peter Kellner with his numbers and demand full release.

What has actually happened here is that the Huhne campaign have taken at punt at the numbers based on their own canvassing returns (returns that tend to ramp the position of the candidate asking). The person doing the spinning to Guido and Mike is more than likely one of the bloggers4Chris.

The giveaway is the second preferences neither of the other candidates has detected anything other than that Chris does poorly on second preferences except if Menzies comes third when he would do better.

It’s a clever piece of spin, but I wouldn’t bet your shirt on it.
by Bobby February 7th, 2006 at 9:05 pm
posted by Peter Pigeon @ 9:15 pm  
5 Comments:
  • At 08 February, 2006 09:07, Blogger The Cat said…

    Peter, your postings on this are now bordering on the obsessive (witness this morning's efforts on pb.com - your postings on the odds resemble a tickertape).

    If you've really got all that time one your hands, there's always telephone canvassing in Dunfermline to be done ..

     
  • At 08 February, 2006 09:21, Blogger Peter Pigeon said…

    Purlease Catty, check your sources!

    The guy posting on the odds every five minutes is someone else. (Easy to check - just click on his name).

    Some lib dem blogs are posting that they believe the discredited figures. I don't see why one should not report that they are not credible.

     
  • At 08 February, 2006 09:23, Blogger Will said…

    I haven't seen any evidence whatsover that these figures have been made up by the Huhne campaign. Guido and Mike both seem happy to accept that they are a genuine leak.

     
  • At 08 February, 2006 09:26, Blogger Peter Pigeon said…

    No longer true, Will.

    Mike has been told that these are not the correct figures.

     
  • At 22 November, 2009 22:00, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Who knows where to download XRumer 5.0 Palladium?
    Help, please. All recommend this program to effectively advertise on the Internet, this is the best program!

     
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